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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still