Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.